2:00PM Water Cooler 11/1/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Yes, I will do an Election Eve live blog. Enjoy your weekend. –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Common Nightingale, Santpoort, Noord-Holland, Netherlands’

In Case You Might Miss…

1. Friday’s RCP polling: Bad news for Trump.
2. Epstein on Trump (last minute tape).
3. Boeing to vote on new contract Monday (“slight improvement”).

Look for the Helpers

Of course, dentistry should be free at the point of care, like all health care.

My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Transition

“Trump, Harris camps prepare to ‘go to the mattress’ in election legal battles” [The Hill]. “Hours after Steve Bannon was released from prison Tuesday upon serving a four-month stint for evading a congressional subpoena, the onetime adviser to former President Trump sounded the alarm about the upcoming election. ‘The Democrats are not going to give up,’ he told reporters. ‘They just hired Marc Elias. And you only hire Marc Elias — who I think is the toughest election lawyer in the country — you only hire Marc Elias when you want to go to the mattress.’ Elias, a leader of Vice President Harris’s election litigation efforts, hit back: ‘My team of lawyers is better than the GOP’s. And we’re ready to beat them again in 2024.’ The exchange came just days until the nation decides who will next occupy the White House — and the expectation that a dramatic legal standoff awaits, which both the Trump and Harris campaigns are preparing for. Already, there are more than 200 voting and election cases pending across the nation, according to Elias’s tally, with many in key battleground states that could alter the trajectory of the election’s outcome. For weeks, lawyers for the Republican and Democratic parties have gone toe-to-toe in courtrooms on challenges to voter rolls, mail ballots and other election procedures.”

2024

Countdown!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

* * *

Lambert here: Bad news for Trump, as Kamala rebuilt the Blue Wall. But if you look at the results with the Toss-Up states turned red or blue… Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, especially, who will determine the outcome of the election but might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!}.

* * *

Kamala (D): “Full transcript: Vice President Kamala Harris interviewed by NBC News’ Yamiche Alcindor” [NBC]. Yamiche. Of course. It’s all like this: “ALCINDOR: Former first lady Michelle Obama said she stays up at night wondering why this election is so close. Do you do that? What keeps you up at night? HARRIS: What keeps me up at night are the challenges that face the American family and my role and responsibility and my to-do list to address those issues. Whether it be on bringing down the cost of groceries, bringing down the cost of housing, what we need to do to make sure that child care is affordable for working families, what I will do to make sure that Medicare covers in-home care for seniors. Those are the things that keep me up, which is doing the work that will directly impact the people of America.” • I will say that Harris has her well-polished patter down cold, and moves her well-polished talking points as smoothly and swiftly as a three-card monte dealer. But this wasn’t really an interview; it was just Alcindor tossing softball after softball. And no, whatever keeps Kamala up at night, if anything: this ain’t it.

Kamala (D): “Conservatives in furor over Julia Roberts ad” [The Hill]. “‘In the one place in America where women still have a right to choose, you can vote any way you want. And no one will ever know,’ Roberts says in the ad as a woman on screen meets up with her husband after casting her ballot for Harris. The voter winks at a fellow female voter as her husband asks if she made the ‘right choice.’” Vote for Common Good, the nonprofit organization responsible for ad, the responded to backlash. ‘The backlash from certain men who are horrified to think their wives might disagree with them actually proves our point.’” • At least in my mind, it’s not the disagreement, it’s the lying. Of course, lying for Democrats is very on-brand, if you remember how the entire party lied, vociferously and continuously, about Biden’s cognitive dysfunction until he actually slipped a cog where outsiders could see (on national television, too).

Kamala (D): “Why are so many women hiding their voting plans from their husbands?” [Rebecca Solnit, Guardian]. ” The unspoken assumption is that lots of women are bullied, intimidated or controlled by their partners, specifically in straight couples when she wants to vote for Harris and he supports Trump. The messages assure these intimidated voters that they can vote in peace and privacy at a polling place. But a lot of Americans now vote by mail, which generally means they fill out their ballots at home, where that privacy may not be available.” • So wait. Is Solnit saying that the party that pushed vote-by-mail as hard as possible didn’t have women’s safety as their first consideration?

* * *

Trump (R): “Scoop: What Trump is being told” [Axios]. “The memo, addressed to ‘TEAM TRUMP,’ has the subject line: ;PRESIDENT TRUMP IS ON THE VERGE.” [Tony Fabrizio, chief pollster] draws on Real Clear Politics polling averages to argue that Trump’s ‘position nationally and in every single Battleground State is SIGNIFICANTLY better today than it was 4 years ago. I point this out NOT to stoke overconfidence or complacency, but to illustrate just how close this election is and that victory is within our reach,’ the pollster adds. ‘But the fact remains that we still have a great deal of work to do. While the analysis of early and absentee vote returns in each state [is] promising, we know that the bulk of President Trump voters will vote on Election Day.’ Reality check: Polling is as tight as any presidential race ever, with the New York Times average showing Trump at 48% and Vice President Harris at 48%. The 538 average has Harris ahead by 1 point — well within polls’ margins of error. This remains a 50-50 election, folks, with polling from all seven swing states falling within the margins of error.”

Trump (R): “CNN’s Enten: Three Signs That Point To A Trump Victory” [Harry Enten, CNN]. “Republicans have been registering voters in big, huge numbers. They have been gaining in party registration versus the Democrats in the swing states with party registration. We’re talking Arizona. I think it’s a five-point – they’ve expanded their lead from five points from where it was back in 2020. How about Nevada? Big Republican registrations there. They like the early vote. How about North Carolina? Big Republican registration gains. How about Pennsylvania? We spoke about it before a few months ago, big Republican Party registration gains versus where – where – from where they were four years ago. So, Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate. The Democratic number versus the Republican number has shrunk. And so the bottom line is, if Republicans win, come next week, Donald Trump wins come next week. The signs all along will have been obvious. We would look at the right direction being very low, Joe Biden’s approval rating being very low, and Republicans really registering numbers. You can’t say you weren’t warned. Stay tuned.”

* * *

Trump (R): “Listen to Jeffrey Epstein Spill Intel on Donald Trump’s White House” (audio) [Daily Beast]. “It therefore had an impressive topicality, which at once, in Smiley’s eyes, made it suspect.” –John LeCarré, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.

* * *

AZ: “Why Arizona Is Looking Trumpier in 2024” [New York Magazine]. Yvonne Wingett Sanchez: “I think the vibe is definitely very pro-Trumpy. Even a lot of Republicans, including some McCain Republicans that I’ve talked to, who weren’t real big fans and really aren’t still big fans of Trump these days — they don’t like the way Kamala Harris was anointed, essentially. Between that and concerns over the economy, a lot of them are just sort of holding their noses and voting for Trump. I also think this effort to get out low-propensity voters is actually coming to fruition in a really big way. Not just by Turning Point, which is based in Arizona and knows the state probably better than it knows any other swing state in the country, but by all these political groups that have been working on the ground over the last couple of years. Most voters in Arizona vote early. It’s been that way for decades. We are a pioneer of early voting. If you just look at the returns and how heavily Republican they are, the pattern is very much a pre-2020 pattern where Republicans are dominating. No one knows how they voted, but you’ve got to think that a lot of those are going to be for Trump and down-ballot Republicans, and among the independent voters too. So just looking at the trend lines, Republicans are up, Democrats are down, independents are dramatically down. Those are going to be the deciders, and Republicans are feeling pretty good.”

PA: “Trump lagging in early vote with seniors in Pennsylvania, a red flag for GOP” [Politico]. “Donald Trump is lagging Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania early voting with a critical and once-reliably Republican constituency: seniors. It’s a warning sign for the former president that reflects early vote data and polling across the battlegrounds, after Republicans won the senior vote in each of the last five presidential elections. In Pennsylvania, where voters over the age of 65 have cast nearly half of the early ballots, registered Democrats account for about 58 percent of votes cast by seniors, compared to 35 percent for Republicans. That’s despite both parties having roughly equal numbers of registered voters aged 65 and older. The partisan gap is narrower than it was in 2020, when views of early voting were more partisan, and Republicans take that as a good sign. But the GOP still is counting on more of its older voters to show up on Election Day, while Democrats have more votes in the bank.”

* * *

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Elite Maleficence

“Docs: Walking pneumonia cases up on Long Island, especially among very young” [Newsday]. “The CDC called the large number of cases in children between the ages of 2 and 4 “notable” because this bacteria, in general, is not the leading cause of pneumonia for kids that young. Meltzer Krief said typically, about 60% of pneumonia — a lung infection — in children tends to be caused by a virus, rather than a bacteria. But many children being tested in emergency rooms and pediatric offices are testing positive for Mycoplasma pneumoniae.” And why? Immunity debt, of course: “”We are seeing a fourfold increase from last year,” said Dr. Lynda Gerberg, lead pediatrician at Northwell Health GoHealth Pediatric Urgent Care, which has centers across Long Island, New York City and Westchester County. She said the surge may be related to the COVID-19 pandemic, when people were isolating and wearing masks. ‘We weren’t exposed to all these bacteria and viruses,’ Gerberg said. “Our immune system is just catching up [almost five years later???]. It left everybody a little more susceptible to these types of illnesses.’” • Not that Covid weakens the immunue system, oh no no no no. Can’t have that [bangs head on desk]. Meanwhile, CDC is pushing droplet dogma.

Social Norming

Hmm. We use euphemisms for some things that are normal. So what’s going on?

This perfectly describes a phenomenon I’ve been talking about for quite some time now, namely, that if Covid was truly normalised in society, people would readily say its name. The widespread use of euphemisms for the disease demonstrates that quite the opposite is the case. https://t.co/7WXmh9W9mZ

— Conor Browne (@brownecfm) November 1, 2024

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Unemployment Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment rate in the United States was at 4.1% in October of 2024, remaining unchanged from the three-month low in the prior month, and aligned with market expectations. The number of unemployed individuals was broadly unchanged at 7 million.”

Manufacturing: “United States ISM Manufacturing PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 46.5 in October 2024 from 47.2 in September and below forecasts of 47.6. The reading pointed to the another contraction in the manufacturing sector and the worst since July 2023, as demand continues to be weak, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing Machinists to vote on new contract offer meant to end strike” [Seattle Times]. “The union announced the proposal Thursday afternoon and recommended members approve the deal. The 33,000 striking Machinists union members will vote on the proposal Monday. ‘It is time for our Members to lock in these gains and confidently declare victory,’ the union wrote. ‘We believe asking members to stay on strike longer wouldn’t be right as we have achieved so much success.’ The offer includes a 38% general wage increase over the next four years, which compounds to roughly 43% over the life of the agreement, the union said in a statement Thursday. Wages would increase 13% in the first year, then 9%, 9% and 7% in subsequent years…. It does not restore the pension plan, something that many union members have said in recent weeks is a top priority….Union members who voted against the last contract proposal earlier this month said the deal did not offer a large enough wage increase and did not address other key issues, like paid time off and quicker progression steps for employees to move up in Boeing’s ranks. Other employees said they would not settle for a contract that didn’t restore the defined-benefit pension plan.” • Big if true:

Surely Boeing’s more likely to build any new planes in South Carolina? I’m not sure a “Boeing or I’m not going”-quality plane could be built by scabs, though Boeing management being what it is, perhaps they would like to try. And Ortberg was supposed to know the shop floor.

Manufacturing: “Boeing union backs sweetened contract offer that could end strike, sets vote for Monday” [CNBC]. “‘In every negotiation and strike, there is a point where we have extracted everything that we can in bargaining and by withholding our labor,’ the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 751 said Thursday. ‘We are at that point now and risk a regressive or lesser offer in the future.’”…. President Joe Biden congratulated the union and Boeing for the new contract proposal. ‘Machinists at Boeing have sacrificed over the years and deserve a strong contract,’ he said in a statement on Friday, shortly after the jobs report was released.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing Reaches New Deal With Union in Hopes of Ending Strike” [New York Times]. The headline is wrong. There is no deal until the workers vote. “The new contract offer represents a over the recently rejected proposal.” • Oh.

Manufacturing: “Vital Lessons From The Boeing Strike” [Forbes]. “Boeing is a cautionary tale of what can happen when the mindset known as ‘shareholder primacy‘ vanquishes the far healthier mindset of multi-stakeholder capitalism, which recognizes the interdependence of investors, employees, customers, the company itself and the public… 1) The strike is about much more than just money. The core of this strike clearly wasn’t money — it was broken trust…. [I]t’s clear that the primary emotion driving this strike is rage, not greed. Rage at being ignored and disrespected, year after year. Anyone who dismisses these strikers as greedy or ungrateful doesn’t grasp what’s really happening…. 2) The buck must stop with the board.… The company essentially lied about safety issues to its regulators, investors, employees, and customers, not just once but year after year. The directors were either complicit in those deceptions (which would be terrible) or so detached from their oversight role that they didn’t notice them (which is arguably worse). Either way, the Boeing board shows the consequences of extreme adherence to the shareholder primacy mindset…. 3) Recovery requires sincere deeds, not empty words.…. The strikers have no reason to trust Ortberg until they see tangible changes to the company’s priorities and day-to-day practices, as evidence of a true break from the past. He must show that he realizes this strike isn’t merely about money; it’s about saving Boeing before it’s too late.”

Manufacturing: “Airbus’ new plane is the answer to an aging, inefficient Boeing jet that airlines are scrambling to replace” [Business Insider]. “Boeing’s closest competing option is its yet-to-be-certified 737 Max 10, which is close in size but can’t fly as far. The planemaker has a potential “new midsize airplane” that could compete with the A321XLR, though that is still long away from taking flight. In August, United told Business Insider that its A321XLR fleet would replace almost all of its existing 757 routes and allow it to travel to new places, like France and North Africa.” • But the stock buybacks!

Tech: “Democratising publishing” [John O’Nolan]. “What confuses people most about all this, understandably, is that we’re a profitable non-profit organisation. Ghost earns over $7.5M per year and is completely self-sufficient, with no outside funding of any kind…. People often think that “non-profit” means that the company can’t make a profit. It actually means that the company doesn’t have any owners who can personally take the profits. Any revenue earned can only be reinvested. Non-profit structures are particularly well suited to companies that specifically want to serve public community interests, like schools, hospitals, local news orgs, and — yes — open source projects.” • Hmm.

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 60 Greed (previous close: 60 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 62 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 30 at 1:00:29 PM ET.

Gallery

High key (except for the man and the fireplace, one if which, if I were in Lightroom, I’d lighten up so they don’t merge):

Guillotine Watch

“What Sank the Bayesian Superyacht in Italy?” [New York Times]. “[T]he Bayesian was different. Its original buyer — a Dutch businessman, not the Lynches — insisted on a single, striking mast that would be taller than just about any other mast in the world, according to the Italian yacht maker and three people with detailed knowledge of how this boat was built. That decision resulted in major engineering consequences that ultimately left the boat significantly more vulnerable than many comparable superyachts, The Times investigation has found.” • The orginal buyer’s “big swinging dick,” in other words.

News of the Wired

“The 1600s Were a Watershed for Swear Words” [History Today]. Fun, but since this is a family blog, I can’t quote most of it. This caught my eye, being printable: “An early recorded use of the f-word was a piece of marginalia by an anonymous monk writing in 1528 in a manuscript copy of Cicero’s De officiis (a treatise on moral philosophy). The inscription reads: ‘O d fuckin Abbot’.”

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From JN:

JN writes: “Still Life: Phase Transitions.”

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert’s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn’t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals: