2:00PM Water Cooler 10/17/2024 | naked capitalism

Bird Song of the Day

Patient readers, I’m afraid brunch got a little out of hand. More soon! –lambert

Blue-and-white Mockingbird, Laguna del Bosque, Guatemala. “Full singing bout, 12 minutes long! First phrase not too clear, good quality after that. Bird was perched at midlevel in brush under tall cypress trees, close to footpath.”

Also: Please allow me to draw your attention to my post on the Macualey Library and birders, who together make this feature possible.

In Case You Might Miss…

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Less than thirty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

If you ignore the entire concept of margin of error and go with the narrative, another good week for Trump, especially in MI and PA, tbough not, oddly, in the two hurricane swing states, GA and NC. Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!}.

* * *

Democrats en Déshabillé

“The Democrats’ pro-union strategy has been a bust” [Vox]. “But the political return on Democrats’ investment in organized labor has been disappointing…. According to a report from the Center for American Progress, between 2012 and 2016, the Democratic presidential nominee’s share of union voters fell from 66 to 53 percent. Four years ago, Biden erased roughly half of that gap, claiming 60 percent of the union vote. But contemporary polling indicates that Democrats have lost ground with unionized voters since then. In fact, according to an aggregation from CNN’s Harry Enten, Kamala Harris is on track to perform even worse with union households than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.” Let me guess why: The working class is stupid. More: “But there is reason to think that unions’ capacity to liberalize the views of non-college-educated voters has declined in the Trump era. According to the Democratic data scientist David Shor, his party’s “union premium” — the degree to which Democrats perform better with union voters, when controlling for all other demographic variables — dropped nearly to zero in 2020. Democrats still did better with unionized workers than nonunionized ones that year. Extrapolating from Shor’s math, this was almost entirely attributable to the demographic traits of America’s unionized population, which is more highly educated and less Southern than the American electorate.” • Yep.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Elite Maleficence

“Seasonal” as in “every season”:

CDC Announce That Summer Wave Of Winter Viruses Is Over And We’re Now Moving Into Fall Wave Of Winter Viruses pic.twitter.com/5fgaLlAHjI

— The Vertlartnic (@TheVertlartnic) October 16, 2024

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “US unemployment claims dropped by 19,000 in the week ending October 12, marking the largest decrease in three months after hitting a 14-month high the previous week. The total number of claims fell to 241,000, coming in well below market expectations of 260,000. This drop comes after a surge in claims the previous week, largely due to disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Despite this decline, claims remain well above the averages seen earlier this year, reflecting a softening in the US labor market since its post-pandemic peak.”

Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Production MoM” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial production in the US fell 0.3 percent from a month earlier in September 2024, more than market expectations of a 0.2 percent decrease and after a downwardly revised 0.3 percent rise in August.”

Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US soared to 10.3 in October 2024, a significant jump from September’s 1.7 and surpassing the expected 3. Current general activity, new orders, and shipments all experienced growth, with new orders and shipments returning to positive levels. However, the employment index decreased, indicating stable employment conditions.”

Retail: “U.S. Retail Sales” [Trading Economics]. “Retail sales in the US increased 0.4% month-over-month in September 2024, well above a 0.1% gain in August and beating market expectations of a 0.3% rise. Sales at miscellaneous store retailers recorded the biggest increase (4%), followed by clothing (1.5%), health and personal care stores (1.1%) and food and beverages stores (1%).”

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s big borrowing might be backing it into a corner’ [Quartz]. “Boeing’s plan to outlast its strike is taking shape, with Reuters reporting on plans to raise $15 billion through stock and convertible bond sales…. Structuring its new borrowings will be a very delicate maneuver for Boeing, which may face credit scrutiny due to the uncertainty of its labor situation. Any further stress on its balance sheet might push the company to a breaking point. Assessing the initial announcement of the new cash injection plans, the Fitch ratings agency was very cautiously optimistic. ‘Management’s willingness and ability to access non-debt capital sources over the coming months will help alleviate downgrade risks,’ it said.”

Manufacturing: “The Machinists Take Boeing Hostage” [Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal]. “While the strike doesn’t have the same potential to shut down the U.S. economy as the longshoremen stoppage, it could have larger consequences for national security. The strike is delaying production of military jets, and the layoffs could reduce research and development on defense and space.

The union may feel it has the whip hand because politicians aren’t likely to let Boeing fail. But the company could still emerge from a strike much weaker. Management errors and unrealistic union demands are damaging a once great American company, and it is hurting workers as much as shareholders.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing Needs Some Help to Stem Its Cash Burn and Losses” [Bloomberg]. “the more immediate need is to end the strike and return to producing high-quality aircraft, and Boeing needs a little financial breathing room for that. Certainly, the Defense Department could ease some of Boeing’s pain by renegotiating fixed-price contracts that are strangling the company.” • Interesting to see who’s riding to Boeing management’s rescue…

Manufacturing: “Resolution of a Boeing legal crisis hangs in balance as financial crisis deepens” [Yahoo Finance]. “Boeing’s plan to lay off thousands of workers could potentially pose a problem for approval of the guilty plea deal, according to [Rizwan Qureshi, a former federal prosecutor and white-collar partner in Reed Smith LLP’s Washington office]. The company breached its original DOJ agreement by failing to carry out its promised compliance and ethics measures. Because those requirements were meant to prevent and detect future violations of US fraud laws, Boeing may need to satisfy Judge O’Connor that laid-off workers are not needed to carry out its future safety commitments.” And: “The families want the agreement thrown out in favor of a trial and bigger fines. Boeing has agreed to pay $487 million, including a credit for roughly $243 million in fines already paid…. Relatives of the victims asked the judge to fine Boeing $24.8 billion.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s Strike Stalemate Leaves Mediators Hunting For Consensus” [Bloomberg]. “Federal mediators check in frequently with the deadlocked officials, teasing out details of what they’re thinking and paying close attention to even the slightest wording changes. They’re looking for shifts that would merit summoning teams from Boeing and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers back for more negotiations, hoping the next round might finally bring a breakthrough… the IAM district has a history of long strikes at Boeing — the average is 58 days, according to Robert Spingarn of Melius Research LLC. And union officials have been preparing workers for years for a long hold-out. ‘This isn’t necessarily unusual and in particular for these parties, if you look back historically,’ said [Beth Schindler, a regional director for the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service], who’s been with FMCS since 1996 in Seattle, helping on previous Boeing strikes. ‘I have no doubt that they are working behind the scenes, even if independently, to figure out what their next steps are.’… ‘We’re looking for rocks to turn over to see if there’s something underneath,’ Schindler said.” • Turn over a rock at Boeing and you’ll find management.

Manufacturing: “Ryanair Chief Says Boeing To Blame For Lower Traffic Growth” [Forbes]. “Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary said that in his 30 years in the airline industry he had never seen capacity constraints like those he’s facing now. ‘We were supposed to get 20 deliveries before the end of December. They’ll probably come now in January and February, and that’s fine. We’ll have them in time for next summer,’ O’Leary said. ‘The big issue for Ryanair is we’re due 30 aircraft in March, April, May and June of next year, and how many of those will we get?’ ‘I think we’re clearly going to walk back our traffic growth for next year, because I don’t think we’re going to get all those 30 aircraft,” O’Leary added.”

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 74 Greed (previous close: 76 Extreme Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 70 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 15 at 1:03:44 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

News of the Wired

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:

TH writes: “I don’t know what it is about roses with a wall background that always compels me to photograph them, but that’s my excuse for taking this one.”

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert’s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn’t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals: