There’s a surprising new challenger in the early race for the Best Picture Oscar in 2027. In April, the clear leader to take home the highest honor at the 99th Academy Awards was Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. It was evident that the famed director’s adaptation of Homer’s epic poem had the massive budget of $250 million and the star-studded cast with Matt Damon, Anne Hathaway, Tom Holland, Zendaya, and more to be the bait of all Oscar baits this year. It didn’t look like any other movie could topple The Odyssey, but the July blockbuster now has a contender that could act as the spoiler in the category.
Digger could beat The Odyssey at the 2027 Oscars
The satirical comedy film Digger, starring Tom Cruise and directed by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, has become one of the top contenders for the 2027 Best Picture Oscar, according to a bet on Kalshi (as of May 19, 2026). The percentages between Digger and The Odyssey are so close in the full results below (in descending order) that they might as well be tied.
- The Odyssey – 21%
- Digger – 20%
- Dune: Part Three – 12%
- Project Hail Mary – 10%
- Wild Horse Nine – 7%
- Disclosure Day – 5%
- Fjord – 4%
- The Social Reckoning – 4%
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth – 2%
- Behemoth – 2%
- Cry to Heaven – 2%
- Paper Tiger – 2%
- Michael – Less than 1%
- All of a Sudden – Less than 1%
- Artificial – Less than 1%
- Avengers: Doomsday – Less than 1%
- The Death of Robin Hood – Less than 1%
- The Drama – Less than 1%
- The Entertainment System Is Down – Less than 1%
- 1949 / Fatherland – Less than 1%
- Hope – Less than 1%
- I Love Boosters – Less than 1%
- Ink – Less than 1%
- Josephine – Less than 1%
- Minotaur – Less than 1%
- Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew – Less than 1%
- Parallel Tales – Less than 1%
- Sense and Sensibility – Less than 1%
- Tie – Less than 1%
- Werwulf – Less than 1%
As always, these are still very early predictions, and while there’s already $700,000 in the pot for this bet, these percentages can fluctuate wildly. So it’s important to take these results with a grain of salt.
The odds in mid-April had The Odyssey standing at a 30% chance, about a 20-point lead over the critically acclaimed Project Hail Mary, and had both Digger and Dune Part 3 hovering at roughly 8% each. This has changed dramatically since then, with The Odyssey sharply falling in early May to its current position. Meanwhile, Digger has steadily climbed since its trailer was revealed at April’s CinemaCon, with its odds sharply rising on May 17 and improving to the point that it’s now within striking distance of The Odyssey to become the new frontrunner.
That said, Digger always had the early award buzz to be a serious contender for the Best Picture Oscar, well before its release date of October 2, 2026. Iñárritu is a two-time Best Director winner, receiving the nod for Birdman in 2015 and The Revenant in 2016. And while he hasn’t been in the conversation to win the category since then, Digger is projected to be a return to form for him.
The project was greenlit by Legendary Pictures with a sizeable production budget of $125 million and stars Tom Cruise as Digger Rockwell, a deeply flawed but formidable oil tycoon who starts an ecological disaster. The teaser trailer for the film shocked viewers at CinemaCon when it revealed Cruise’s character with a prominent beer belly and thinning hair. Academy voters tend to favor remarkable transformations like these, which is partly why Cruise is already in contention for Best Lead Actor Oscar. The A-list star has never won an Oscar for acting before (he got an Honorary Oscar in 2025), so this might be his time to shine.
Despite the fact that we don’t know that much about Digger yet, actress Sandra Hüller is already one of the frontrunners to be nominated for the Best Supporting Actress Oscar for her performance in the film on Kalshi. And Digger is an early Oscar contender for Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Cinematography, and Best Original Screenplay.
Rounding out the movie’s cast are John Goodman as the President of the United States, Riz Ahmed as the President’s assistant, Jesse Plemons, and Emma D’Arcy.
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