Posted on: April 13, 2026, 05:49h.
Last updated on: April 13, 2026, 05:49h.
- Golf’s first major of the year was the most bet on sporting event in Kalshi history
- That’s on the basis that volume generated by the Super Bowl was spread across a slew of derivatives
- The Masters champion contract was the 2nd-most bet on contract in Kalshi history
The Masters was a boon for Kalshi as the premier golf tournament generated $545 million in volume for the largest US prediction markets, but there’s more beyond that headline number.
The $545 million in turnover on Kalshi on golf’s first major of the year means the Masters was the most wagered on sporting event in the exchange’s history. Estimates on Kalshi’s Super Bowl volume range from $871 million to $1 billion, but much of that turnover was attributable to contracts not tied to the game itself. In the case of the Masters trading, it was all directly related to the tournament.
Not only that, but that $545 was also nearly 10% higher than $500 million that changed hands on Kalshi over the courses of the NCAA Men’s and Women’s Tournaments.
Add to that, the $460 million volume estimate on the “Masters Champion” contract — a derivative on the tournament winner — was the second-most traded contract in Kalshi history, trailing only the $535 million that changed hands on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
Masters Highlights Some Advantages for Kalshi
Golf is usually in the “other” category for traditional sportsbooks, dwarfed in popularity by football, basketball and baseball, but prediction markets’ plumbing could breathe fresh life into the sport among bettors, particularly those with big bankrolls.
Most golf tournaments, including majors such as the Masters, last four days, providing active traders and sharp bettors with ample opportunity to hedge, take profits and establish new positions. In fact, golf’s majors and potential the four grand slams of tennis could be ideal trading opportunities for the sharp bettors Kalshi and other prediction markets are already luring.
Industry watchers said the dominance of the outright winner market highlighted golf’s unique appeal to prediction market traders, who favor multi-day events with evolving odds and deep liquidity,” according to Seeking Alpha.
“Whale” bettors are pivotal to prediction markets’ growth because they provide liquidity, often keeping spreads tight on various event contracts. Yes/no exchanges offer something to those bettors, too, namely not being limited or expelled as often happens at traditional sportsbooks.
Last Week Was Huge for Kalshi
With the aforementioned Masters push and some help from political and Iran war derivatives, Kalshi volume reached $3.4 billion last week, good for the company’s highest weekly mark to date. Sports event contracts accounted for over 85% of that turnover.
As for golf’s potential benefits to prediction markets, the sample size will broaden over the near-term as PGA Championship is a month way, followed by the US Open in June and The Open Championship in July.
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