The prediction market Polymarket had Donald Trump favored to win the presidential election, and then he became the president-elect, again. Now people are betting on who will be his pick for secretary of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, and Polymarket shows Scott Bessent’s odds of securing that nomination at 67%, at the moment. Obviously, there is no guarantee; Janet Yellen has served as the Treasury’s secretary since January 2021.
Bessent is the founder and chief executive of Key Square Group, a hedge fund, and formerly the chief investment officer of Soros Fund Management, founded by prolific Democratic Party donor George Soros. Bessent’s name has been floated for days, pretty much since Trump’s victory. Trump recently described Bessent as “one of the most brilliant men on Wall Street,” who is “respected by everybody,” and a “nice-looking guy, too,” according to the Wall Street Journal. Bessent reportedly helped Trump on the campaign trail, beyond his very generous contributions; Trump’s key advisors are reportedly backing Bessent, per Bloomberg.
Data from the Federal Election Commission shows Bessent shelled out $500,000 to the Trump 47 Committee and other joint fundraising accounts; and $750,000 to the Make America Great Again super PAC. There were of course other contributions, too, including $413,000 to various Republican National Committee and related accounts, and donations to individual candidates.
Recently when asked if he’d be a part of the second Trump administration on CNBC, Bessent said, “I’m going to do whatever President Trump asks.” Not to mention, he just wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, praising the former and future president—and criticizing not only Trump’s predecessor, but maybe his, too, if he actually becomes treasury secretary.
“Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has distorted Treasury markets by borrowing more than $1 trillion in more-expensive shorter-term debt compared with historical norms,” he wrote. Followed by, shortly after: “The failure of Bidenomics is clear. But Mr. Trump has turned around the economy before, and he is ready to do so again. Twenty-three Nobel laureates might not understand this, but the financial markets have clearly spoken,” he wrote, in reference to the economists who warned against another Trump presidency. Yet when Trump won, markets seemed to immediately respond otherwise.
There are other contenders for treasury secretary people are betting on (and who are mentioned in the chatter), such as Howard Lutnick, the chairman and chief executive of Cantor Fitzgerald, a financial services firm. Polymarket puts his chances at 30%, at the moment. Lutnick is the co-chair of Trump’s transition team, basically responsible for filling the spots in his next administration. FOX Business reported Lutnick is “campaigning hard” for the role. Bessent and Lutnick pretty much took centerstage once John Paulson, who helms a family office by the same name, took his hat out of the treasury secretary ring because of what he called his “complex financial obligations.”
Money talks, and so does praise, it seems in the Trump world. We know the world’s richest man Elon Musk threw his full support behind Trump. He showed up at rallies on the campaign trail, appeared on podcasts as a surrogate for the Trump, J.D. Vance ticket, and his super PAC raised more than $130 million, per FEC data. Now, Musk has been appointed to run the newly created “Department of Government Efficiency,” alongside Vivek Ramaswamy, who was running as Republican presidential candidate before he dropped out and endorsed Trump.
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