Top pollsters warn of potential chaos no matter who wins the election: Margins are ‘razor-thin’ and trust in the system is at an all-time low
The U.S. presidential election is tomorrow. It is the most consequential election in a year of very consequential elections. At the time of writing, some 72 million Americans have cast their ballots—about 45% of the total that will be submitted. We are trailing the 2020 tally, but well ahead of 2016. This is America’s democracy in action.
The polls show a neck-and-neck race at the national level and in the seven key swing states. It is hard to say who holds the lead. At Ipsos, we give a slight edge to former President Donald Trump but have a low level of conviction about the outcome given the mixed signals. Such a close race is the clearest manifestation of a divided and polarized America—it’s a tale of two Americas.
This begets the critical question: Will America withstand such a razor-thin outcome?
At first blush, there appears to be support for consensus. In a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll, 83% of Americans said they would accept the results of the election. We also find remarkable convergence across party lines. Such an agreement assumes two important things. First, that the results themselves are not in dispute. And second, that the political actors—Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump—are willing to cede defeat to the other side. These are strong assumptions.
Citizens believe the system is broken
Taking a closer look at public opinion shows that American democracy is under strain. There are multiple layers to this fragility. Our own polling shows that a vast majority of citizens around the world, including Americans, view the system as broken and rigged against them. This anti-establishment sentiment, which favors illiberal solutions, is strongly rooted in the American psyche. Such attitudes only reinforce the belief that democracy is fragile. A recent Ipsos poll shows that 56% of Americans believe that U.S. democracy is weak. With such low levels of trust, the benefit of the doubt for the other side is in short supply.
When it comes to the electoral system itself, Republicans are much more likely to view the election as rigged. Here, it is worth noting that the party out of power historically has been less trusting in the electoral system. The Republicans are technically out of power.
Republicans have a very specific rationale for their trepidation: Many believe that there will be a deluge of voting by illegal immigrants (66% of Republican registered voters believe this). They also believe that mail-in ballots are an inherently fraudulent method. This, coupled with the nonrequirement of voter IDs, only adds to Republican voters’ skepticism.
In contrast, Democrats are especially distrustful of the Electoral College, which they think is unfair: Only 40% see the Electoral College as fair. If Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College (the third time for a Democrat this century), we should expect generalized Democratic outrage and disbelief. In a nutshell, the building blocks of any electoral consensus are weak at best.
Dangerous dynamics
The dynamics of the election also make an electoral consensus hard to come by for two reasons. First, razor-thin margins could draw out the counting and certification for days if not weeks. Take Pennsylvania as an example, Trump won it by just over 40,000 votes in 2016. Biden won it by just over 80,000 votes in 2020. Extremely close margins indeed. Polling today suggests an equally close outcome.
Of course, if the polls are off by only one or two points, this could lead to a sweep for one of the sides. The losing side most probably will call foul on the polls. The specter of a rigged system by another name.
If the count lingers on, we should expect increasing misinformation and attacks on the system. In 2020, the pattern was that earlier counts on the day of the election favored the Republicans while later counts were more Democratic. Such temporal variability only reinforced the Republican belief that the count was unfair. It is still up in the air whether such patterns will hold. But the risk is real.
Second, both campaigns have been extremely aggressive in arguing that America is in crisis. The Democrats and Harris have rallied around fears of “threats to democracy.” For them, the threat is Trump and his perceived authoritarian tendencies. A recent ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 50% of Americans believe that Trump is fascist. On the flip side, Trump and his surrogates have hammered home that a rigged and broken system is the result of the collusion between the mainstream media and elites. Polling shows that Americans like neither the mainstream media nor elites.
The two campaigns have weaponized America against itself—a self-fulfilling prophecy. Each side now believes that a win by the other means chaos and crises. Desperation is dangerous.
Extra-institutional means and violence
In this context, we believe that neither side will easily cede given the narrowness of the margins and belief in the inherent wickedness of their opponent. Both have already lined up their legions of lawyers to contest and defend where necessary. Few Americans support such legal actions. But this is how the game is played.
There is even less support for violence and extra-institutional means to challenge the outcome. Infinitesimally few Americans support political violence. But a majority of Americans believe that such violence is likely to happen. This is our sad state. America walks on pins and needles.
We don’t have a crystal ball. It is difficult to say if one side or the other will use extra-institutional means to attempt to influence the outcome. Republicans have much less trust in the integrity of the system than Democrats. They also are more likely to support “a strong leader” who will “take back the country.”
Trump and Republicans did mount a failed challenge on Jan. 6, 2021. While the past is not always prologue, a precedent has been set. Americans also seem to think that Trump is less likely than Harris to accept the results. We believe that while the chances for such confusion are low, they are not zero.
What it all means for America’s future
America will come out weaker no matter who is ultimately declared the winner. We should expect that the narrower the margin and the longer it takes to determine the winner, the greater the distrust will grow. The losing side is likely to caulk off the outcome to a rigged system. There is a small but significant chance for violence.
In the longer term, lower trust will make governance and achieving consensus especially difficult. Looking to the future, critical reforms must be considered, including same-day counting, voter ID cards, and alternatives to the Electoral College.
The days and weeks ahead will be difficult ones that “try men’s souls” as Thomas Paine so eloquently put it. If, against all expectations, this election ends up a blowout, we may all be surprised. But electoral legitimacy might just find itself more easily. If, instead, the election is close, existing trends will likely bring out the worst in America—our puritanical righteousness and tribalism. Will the winning side show enough leadership to unite us? Let’s hope for the best—but prepare for the worst.
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