Russo-Ukrainian War, day 765: Zelenskyy warns of retreat as Russian forces outgun Ukraine 6-to-1 amid stalled US aid

Military

Russian forces outgun Ukraine 6-to-1, new military chief says. Ukraine’s Armed Forces Commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, gave his first interview since his appointment in February.

Russia targets more power plants as Ukraine downs 58/60 explosive drones, 26/39 missiles. Russian forces launched an air attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, using drones and missiles, damaging power plants. Ukrainian air defenders downed 84 of 99 air targets. Unconfirmed reports suggest a possible violation of Moldova’s airspace during the attack.

Russian missile strike on Odesa leaves children wounded. Despite Ukrainian air defense forces shooting down both missiles, debris from the Russian attack on Odesa resulted in injuries.

UK intel: Russian high-value vessels redeploy from Sevastopol due to Ukrainian strikes. Ukrainian strikes on occupied Crimea’s Sevastopol naval base compel Russian high-value vessels to use alternative ports, demonstrating Ukraine’s success in reducing the Black Sea Fleet’s ability to project power in the region, per UK intelligence.

As of 28 Mar 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 439970 (+780)
    • Tanks: 6914 (+10)
    • APV: 13237 (+21)
    • Artillery systems: 10963 (+32)
    • MLRS: 1021 (+2)
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 729 (+1)
    • Aircraft: 347
    • Helicopters: 325
    • UAV: 86002 (+22)
    • Cruise missiles : 2017 (+2)
    • Warships/boats: 26
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 14595 (+56)

Intelligence and technology

Belgium pledges €100M to maintain Ukraine’s F-16 fighter jet fleet. This week, Ukrainian FM Dmytro Kuleba announced that F-16 jets would be in Ukraine’s airspace by mid-summer.

International

“No US aid, no choice but retreat,” Zelenskyy warns. The US aid package, critical for Kyiv’s defense against Russia, has been stalled in Congress since last fall, suspending much-needed military assistance.

Ex-Ukrainian security chief Oleksiy Danilov named ambassador to Moldova. Moldova, with minimal military and hosting the Russian-backed breakaway Transnistria, is a key European region at risk of Russian aggression.

Ukrainian delegation “ambushed” in Warsaw as Polish official goes off the rails – Media. Kyiv had high hopes for the negotiations aimed at clearing the Ukrainian border blockaded by Polish farmers, and easing Ukrainian farm exports to Poland.

Zelenskyy: Russia won’t stop in Ukraine, will target Kazakhstan, Baltic states, Poland, Germany next. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy warns that if Ukraine loses to Russia, Putin aims to target Kazakhstan, Baltic states, Poland, and Germany, seeking to restore the former Soviet Union’s imperial glory and geographical borders.

Ukraine receives $1.5 billion World Bank aid for reconstruction and social needs. Ukraine has received a $1.5 billion tranche from the World Bank, with contributions from Japan and the UK, to cover budget spending for social and humanitarian needs and reconstruction, amid stalled US aid.

Polish PM Tusk: Now is most critical moment since WWII end, next two years will decide everything. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk describes the current period as the most critical since WWII, urging the EU to arm itself and spend 2% of GDP on defense. He emphasizes the importance of protecting Ukraine from Russian invasion and maintaining its independence.

Humanitarian and social impact

Ukrenergo: Ukraine’s power grid withstood Russia’s nighttime assault on power plants. Despite Russia’s nocturnal strike on power plants on March 29, Ukraine’s power grid remains stable, with damage reported to thermal and hydroelectric facilities, leading to limited electricity consumption in the Kryvyi Rih area.