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Russo-Ukrainian war, day 687: Ukraine has initial evidence Russia uses North Korean missiles in Ukraine

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Military

Zelenskyy: Air control crucial for Ukraine’s ground offensive. According to Zelenskyy, Ukraine “does not make wide steps forward” because Russian forces “control the sky.” “If we unblock the sky, we will go forward, if not – we will stand where we stand,” he said.

Syrskyi: Russia continues offensive ops on three front sectors. The Russian army is persistently attempting to dislodge Ukrainian units from the Kupiansk forest and seize Synkivka, with the goal of cutting off Kupiansk, General Syrskyi said.

Media: Drone hits aircraft repair plant in Russia’s Voronezh Oblast. A drone reportedly struck 711 aircraft repair plant in Borisoglebsk, located about 400 km from the Ukrainian border.

Ukraine reports first evidence of North Korean missile used by Russia. Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s office says it has initial evidence that Russia used North Korean-made ballistic missiles in the January 2 strike on Kharkiv, according to Prosecutor General Andrii Kostin.

As of 11 Jan 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

      • Personnel: 367620 (+830)
      • Tanks: 6050 (+12)
      • APV: 11238 (+22)
      • Artillery systems: 8699 (+15)
      • MLRS: 957 (+1)
      • Anti-aircraft systems: 641 (+2)
      • Aircraft: 329
      • Helicopters: 324
      • UAV: 6834
      • Cruise missiles : 1806 (+1)
      • Warships/boats: 23
      • Submarines: 1
      • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 11596 (+21)

Intelligence and technology

Russia hits 2 million large-caliber munitions yearly; 500k shortfall covered by North Korea. First Belarus, then Iran, and now mainly North Korea have covered Russia’s ammunition shortfalls, according to Ukrainian intelligence

MP: Ukraine tripled arms making in 2023, eyes further growth this year. Private companies now account for 80% of defense industry production in Ukraine after a major push in 2023, says Oleksandr Zavitnevych

North Korea may sell tactical guided missiles to Russia in addition to short-range ballistic missiles, Seoul says. South Korean defense chief suggests North Korea looking to sell additional new types of tactical guided missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine, on top of confirmed short-range missile transfers

Ukraine Mission Head: NATO positively assesses F-16 deployment preparations in Ukraine. NATO allies favorably evaluate preparations to deploy F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine at an extraordinary meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council in Brussels, as per Ukrainian Mission Head.

International

Latvian president urges allies to support Ukraine until full victory over Russian imperialism. This political signal should replace rhetoric to “support Ukraine as long as it takes,” Rinkēvičs said

UN plans to provide Ukraine with $3.1 bn in humanitarian aid this year. According to the UN, more than 14.6 million Ukrainians, 40% of Ukraine’s population, will require humanitarian assistance in 2024.

Latvia announces new military aid package for Ukraine, including ammunition, howitzers, helicopters. The package additionally includes drones, SUVs, communication devices, generators, and winter gear, among other equipment.

Türkiye, Romania, and Bulgaria sign agreement for joint Black Sea mine clearance. In response to maritime safety concerns in the Black Sea amid Russia’s war against Ukraine, three NATO allies have established a Mine Countermeasures Task Group to tackle the drifting sea mines.

Estonia: West should allow Ukraine to hit targets in Russia with Western weapons. Estonia’s President Alar Karis voiced his support for Ukraine to freely strike Russian territory using Western-provided weapons, without constraints only allowing attacks on Russian-occupied Ukrainian land.

Humanitarian and social impact

Russian missiles strike Kharkiv hotel, injuring 11, including Turkish journalists. Late on 10 January, Russia again attacked central Kharkiv with ballistic missiles launched from Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, injuring at least 11 civilians, with Turkish journalists among those.

Bloomberg: Italian PM Meloni secretly urges Hungary’s Orban to unlock aid for Ukraine. In December 2023, Orban blocked €50 billion in aid for Ukraine. EU leaders will seek to reassess this issue during the emergency summit on 1 February.

ISW: Kremlin appears to guide Moldova’s Transnistria moves, laying ground for false flag. “The Kremlin may be instructing actors in the Russian-backed breakaway republic of Transnistria to set information conditions for a possible false-flag operation in Transnistria as part of wider Kremlin efforts to destabilize Moldova,” ISW says.

New developments

FT: Russia still imports one-third of essential war tech from Western companies. This is one of the downsides to western companies outsourcing production to Asian countries with more lenient export controls

Read our earlier daily review here

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